# MacroVision v95: UASFin access concept note
Prepared 29 October 2026. HISTORICAL ENQUIRY CONCEPT.

**Status update (v104, 29 October 2026):** An enquiry was subsequently sent. The researcher reports a provider reply declining the current application on eligibility grounds. The current access route is closed; no participant data were acquired. The original planning text below is retained as history, not an active application checklist. See [v104 decision and measurement contract](MONTHLY_TRANSFER_CONTRACT_V104.md).

## Administrative completion required before submission
Research lead, institution/independent-research eligibility, institutional sponsor (if required), study location, authorized analyst, contact address, funding, ethics determination and permitted analysis environment are **not supplied or verified**. The draft does not claim academic affiliation, student status, ethics approval or US-based research status. Complete these fields truthfully before any submission; no agreement has been signed and no account created.

## Project title and purpose
Pre-event liquidity and food expenditure after involuntary job separation: feasibility of linking UAS monthly employment surveys and UASFin account data.

We seek to establish whether permitted linked data can support a prespecified observational mechanism test: is involuntary job separation associated with a larger change in food expenditure among households whose liquid resources were low before separation? This is one component of MacroVision's broader automation research. It is not a test that automation caused these separations, a worldwide unemployment forecast, or an application for causal/global macro calibration.

## Initial enquiry requested
Please advise whether an authorized research route exists for the required financial transaction/balance product linked to monthly employment records, and whether the minimum coverage can be assessed through disclosure-reviewed aggregate feasibility outputs. At this stage we request documentation and aggregate feasibility assessment only, not transfer of participant records.

UAS625 and UAS782 are examples located in public metadata, not a fixed analysis-wave list. Please identify all compatible released monthly waves and the transaction vintages actually available. UAS548 is an invitation/consent instrument, not evidence of linked account coverage. Historical field dates cannot establish continuing financial coverage.

## Minimum requested information
| Domain | Minimum information needed | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Product/access | File inventory, vintages, approved use, eligibility, applicable agreements, analyst location/environment, costs and timing | Decide whether an application is feasible |
| Linkage | Provider-managed person/household/account relationship and key documentation | Avoid treating one respondent/account as a complete household |
| Employment | Exact field codes, selection/routing, reason and date of separation, actual interview/reference dates, prior paid employment, index-worker earnings/identity and partner changes | Distinguish involuntary loss, job changes and hours reduction |
| Financial coverage | Coverage start/end by month, connection interruptions, collection versus reference timestamps, contemporary versus backfilled balances | Establish strictly pre-event measurement and complete windows |
| Spending | Food-at-home, delivery and away definitions; dates/amounts; treatment of cash, benefits, mixed baskets, refunds and transfers | Define the fixed primary expenditure measure |
| Resources | Cash/accessible account balances and total baseline monthly expenditure, units and debt-service components | Apply a documented low-buffer rule |
| Sampling/inference | Linked-sample design, consent/attrition information, appropriate weights and variance inputs | Assess selection, effective size and uncertainty |

No names, contact information, credentials, bank account numbers, precise location or free-text financial descriptions are requested for export. Provider-side derived classifications may be sufficient if their definitions and validation are documented. Exact dates/amounts, if necessary for analysis, must remain in the approved environment; public release is limited to permitted aggregate output.

## Requested aggregate feasibility flow — no spending contrasts
For each compatible period, report a disclosure-reviewed sequential flow with explicit denominators:
1. Invited and eligible for financial linkage.
2. Consented; then separately completed account connection.
3. Active linked participants with observed coverage in all three baseline months.
4. Linked monthly employment responses with prior paid employment and interpretable reference windows.
5. Households/index workers meeting ages 25–60 and verified separation rules, and corresponding risk-set controls.
6. Interpretable strictly pre-event balances and baseline spending denominator.
7. Complete three post-event months and valid primary basket.
8. Unique households, events, duplicates/repeated reports, household changes and four joint event-by-buffer cells, with any required suppression.

Calendar event month is 0; primary pre-period is -3,-2,-1 and post-period +1,+2,+3. Household windows are reserved chronologically before outcome validity. Provider feasibility counts may be provisional; do not return event-associated spending means, effect estimates or tests at this stage. Suppress small cells and explain suppression; suppressed values are not zero.

## Analysis plan and decision gates
Subject to source verification, compare the change in log mean real food expenditure before/after an event using a weighted interaction of involuntary separation and pre-event low buffer, with baseline covariates and calendar effects as specified in v91. Classify buffer as accessible liquid resources below one baseline month's total expenditure only if the numerator, denominator and timing are genuinely supported.

Mixed reasons, approximate/default dates, benefit-funded food coverage, partial accounts and household changes need rules frozen before outcomes. Zero food expenditure is excluded only from the log estimand and retained in the secondary level-change analysis with exclusions reported. A source-specific codebook and variance plan are required; no proxy substitution is automatic.

The v91 normal-approximation targets are 95% interval half-width <=.05 log units and 80% power for a .05-log interaction at two-sided alpha .05. Its illustrative 25,640 complete-household requirement is hypothetical, not a fixed universal minimum. Final feasibility must reflect audited cell shares, variance ranges, clustering/design degrees of freedom, retention and consent selection, all fixed before outcome contrasts. An inadequate feasible sample produces an infeasibility report rather than a relaxed threshold.

## Data-use and AI workflow
Current UAS policy forbids microdata use with LLMs and AI-accessible indexing directories; it permits specified code/metadata and aggregate-output uses subject to policy. We therefore propose that only an authorized analyst process any approved microdata in a provider-approved environment outside this AI workspace. No microdata will be uploaded to MacroVision's website, GitHub or this assistant. Please confirm the applicable financial-product access tier and any additional restrictions, output review, retention and deletion requirements.

The public policy states US-based researcher eligibility for its described LINKAGE Enclave. The applicant's eligibility is unknown, and that enclave is not established as the route for UASFin. Please identify a permissible route, if any; do not presume a non-US applicant qualifies or that a US collaborator automatically resolves all requirements.

## Intended outputs
A public feasibility report first; subsequently, only if gates pass, a fixed source-specific specification, reproducible code without records, disclosure-approved aggregate estimates, limitations and null/inconclusive findings. Observational selection and unmeasured confounding remain. No individual prediction, credit decision or participant contact is proposed.

## Submission status and next action
Historical proposed action superseded by the v104 status update above. The current route is closed for the present application following the reported provider response. Continue only with public-source feasibility work and synthetic accounting development; neither is empirical validation of the proposed linked-data study.

## References
- [Design and planning targets](DIRECT_CONSUMPTION_DESIGN_V91.md)
- [Access-route comparison](TRANSACTION_DATA_FEASIBILITY_V93.md)
- [Public linkage metadata audit](UAS_LINKAGE_AUDIT_V94.md)
- UAS current access and AI policy, reviewed October 29, 2026: https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php?r=eNpLtDK0qi62MrFSKkhMT1WyLrYyBLFLk3Iyk_WSS4sSS1JTlKxrAe9cXAyW

Validation: checked consistency with v91/v94 and current provider access policy. This document contains no participant data, invented approvals or asserted affiliation. Website checks verify publication only, not data access.