{
  "stage": 112,
  "source": {
    "author": "Francis Wong",
    "version": "CESifo 11185, June 16, 2024",
    "url": "https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11185.pdf",
    "locators": [
      "Section 3.2–3.3",
      "Equation 4",
      "Table A4 columns 1 and 6",
      "Figure 3"
    ]
  },
  "extraction": {
    "population": "2010–2019 mortgaged owner-occupiers paying through escrow; excludes California; no payoff within two-year event window",
    "denominator": "One-year change in ANNUAL property tax, dollars",
    "outcome": "12-month cumulative leveraged-auto proxy; auto-balance increases exceeding $5,000",
    "event": "First increased escrow payment; car reference t=-1",
    "design": "Homeowner FE; event time interacted with county, year and assessed-value ventiles",
    "assumptions": "Within-group parallel trends and comparable latent effects across treatment doses",
    "standard_error_cluster": "Loan",
    "estimates": [
      {
        "spec": "A4(1), actual tax change",
        "beta": -0.137,
        "se": 0.038
      },
      {
        "spec": "A4(6), predicted tax change",
        "beta": -0.087,
        "se": 0.095
      }
    ],
    "unit": "Outcome dollars per annual-tax-change dollar",
    "heterogeneity": "Similar auto responses across credit-access groups; distress concentrated among constrained groups",
    "extrapolation": "Broad-consumption MPC about 0.93 is extrapolated, not directly observed"
  },
  "derived": {
    "method": "Analyst calculation: beta ± 1.96 SE, normal approximation; not author-reported intervals",
    "intervals_95": [
      {
        "spec": "A4(1)",
        "lower": -0.21148,
        "upper": -0.06252
      },
      {
        "spec": "A4(6)",
        "lower": -0.2732,
        "upper": 0.0992
      }
    ],
    "interpretation": "Predicted-shock specification does not exclude zero; this does not establish no effect."
  },
  "decision": {
    "model_parameters_changed": false,
    "calibration_gate_open": false,
    "narrow_q_grid": false,
    "reasons": [
      "Observed durable-credit proxy differs from desired broad consumption",
      "Joint housing-wealth change differs from model surcharge",
      "One-year endpoint does not identify twenty-year response",
      "Credit-access subgroups do not map to model cohorts",
      "No independent replication or microdata analysis"
    ]
  },
  "next_step": "Close this source-specific calibration route for now. Translate stage-110 q sensitivity into break-even frontiers for preserving displaced-household purchasing power, using declared assumptions rather than an estimated q."
}