{ "stage": 111, "status": "evidence_screen_completed_calibration_gate_closed", "model_parameters_changed": false, "target": { "parameter": "q[group]", "definition": "Incremental desired-consumption reduction per accrued recurring surcharge dollar, before cash constraints", "baseline_income_spending_rule": 0.9, "horizon_years": 20 }, "scope": "Selected primary-source extraction, not a systematic review or independent replication. No restricted microdata accessed.", "sources": [ { "id": "bracha_cooper_2013", "authors": [ "Anat Bracha", "Daniel H. Cooper" ], "title": "Asymmetric Responses to Tax-Induced Changes in Personal Income", "version": "Boston Fed Public Policy Brief 13-4, November 15, 2013", "url": "https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/Workingpapers/PDF/economic/ppb/2013/ppb134.pdf", "locator": "Results pp. 7–8; Appendix A", "population": "945 surveyed low/moderate-income Boston tax-preparation clients; not the affected analysis N", "measurement": "Self-reported completed or intended spending adjustments", "shock": "2013 payroll-tax increase versus expected 2012 tax refunds", "estimates": [ { "outcome": "Mean spending reduction per take-home dollar lost", "value": 0.9, "unit": "dollars per dollar" }, { "outcome": "Planned spending per refund dollar", "value": 0.6, "unit": "dollars per dollar" } ], "horizon": "Survey plans/reports, not a fixed measured transaction window", "standard_error": null, "missing_reason": "Not extracted", "mapping": "No direct calibration: intentions, selected population, recurring increase versus one-off refund." }, { "id": "baugh_et_al_2021", "authors": [ "Brian Baugh", "Itzhak Ben-David", "Hoonsuk Park", "Jonathan A. Parker" ], "title": "Asymmetric Consumption Smoothing", "version": "AER 111(1), January 2021, 192–230", "doi": "10.1257/aer.20181735", "url": "https://mitsloan.mit.edu/shared/ods/documents/?PublicationDocumentID=7668", "locator": "Table 3, p. 208; data and identification sections", "population": "Account-aggregator households receiving refunds and making tax payments in different years, 2011–2015", "measurement": "Identified consumer transactions; excludes unclassified/check outflows", "shock": "Annual tax settlement, with filing-news controls", "horizon": "Cumulative from day −29 through endpoint", "estimates": [ { "endpoint_day": 28, "payment_percent": -0.15, "payment_se_pp": 1.1, "refund_percent": 7.32, "refund_se_pp": 0.87 }, { "endpoint_day": 84, "payment_percent": -0.39, "payment_se_pp": 2.3, "refund_percent": 12.71, "refund_se_pp": 1.8 } ], "uncertainty": "Two-way clustered SE: household-year and calendar day", "identification": "Observational lead/lag specification with household-year and calendar-day fixed effects", "mapping": "Percent of settlement, not dollar coefficients. Payment smoothing does not identify long-run q=0." }, { "id": "sahm_shapiro_slemrod_2015", "authors": [ "Claudia R. Sahm", "Matthew D. Shapiro", "Joel Slemrod" ], "title": "Balance-Sheet Households and Fiscal Stimulus", "version": "FEDS 2015-037, May 20, 2015", "doi": "10.17016/FEDS.2015.037", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2015/files/2015037pap.pdf", "locator": "Table 1, printed p. 5; discussion", "population": "Michigan Surveys of Consumers, affected respondents", "measurement": "Weighted shares reporting their main adjustment margin", "shock": "Payroll-tax cut expiration", "estimates": [ { "survey_year": 2013, "frame": "prospective", "affected_n": 561, "spending_share_pct": 55, "saving_share_pct": 30, "debt_or_borrowing_share_pct": 15 }, { "survey_year": 2014, "frame": "retrospective", "affected_n": 519, "spending_share_pct": 43, "saving_share_pct": 35, "debt_or_borrowing_share_pct": 22 } ], "horizon": "Planned response versus previous-year recollection; different interview groups", "standard_error": null, "missing_reason": "Not extracted", "mapping": "Respondent shares are not dollar MPCs. Same 2013 policy as Boston study; not independent policy replications." }, { "id": "wong_2024", "authors": [ "Francis Wong" ], "title": "Taxing Homeowners Who Won’t Borrow", "version": "CESifo Working Paper 11185, June 16, 2024", "url": "https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11185.pdf", "locator": "Section 3.3, pp. 11–12; Section 6 and Figure 2", "population": "Linked homeowner property, mortgage-servicing and credit records", "measurement": "Leveraged auto-consumption proxy: monthly auto-balance increases above $5,000", "shock": "Property-tax increases associated with rising home values", "horizon": "12-month cumulative auto outcome", "finding": "Auto consumption falls around tax increases", "estimates": [], "standard_error": null, "missing_reason": "Numeric coefficient and uncertainty intentionally deferred pending denominator/design extraction", "mapping": "Narrow durable/credit proxy and joint housing-wealth changes cannot directly calibrate broad spending q. A newer author-listed version was located but not extracted." } ], "calibration_gate": { "open": false, "required": [ "Tax liability news separated from settlement cash", "Matched increase direction, expectations and horizon", "Consumption basket and desired-versus-realized mapping", "Comparable population and cohort definitions", "Uncertainty and identification assessed", "Debt, saving and consumption flows separated" ] }, "next_step": "Extract Wong’s tax denominator, event-time design, numeric uncertainty and heterogeneity before any proposed outcome bridge; retain existing sensitivity grid.", "screened_not_extracted": [ { "candidate": "Lorenz Kueng, NBER WP 20437, Tax News", "reason": "Official page/PDF access returned 403; abstract alone insufficient for coefficient extraction." } ], "limitations": [ "Selected sections reviewed, not all appendices or replication code", "No pooling across outcomes or horizons", "Missing uncertainty means unextracted, never zero", "No claim of empirical validation for automation or twenty-year equilibrium" ] }