{
  "version": 102,
  "review_date": "2026-10-29",
  "status": "screened_primary_source_evidence_map_not_systematic_review",
  "calibration_approved": false,
  "links": [
    {
      "id": "productivity_prices",
      "parameters": [
        "productivity_gain",
        "pass_through"
      ],
      "status": "directional_support_context_dependent_no_numeric_mapping",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "aghion_2020",
          "title": "What Are the Labor and Product Market Effects of Automation? New Evidence from France",
          "date": "2020-02-25",
          "url": "https://cepr.org/publications/dp14443",
          "review_scope": "official abstract",
          "design": "abstract reports event studies and shift-share IV; full design not audited",
          "finding": "French manufacturing automation is associated with estimated lower prices and higher productivity-related scale/profits; this source also reports positive employment effects",
          "limit": "Manufacturing, historical automation measures and IV identifying assumptions; not a world CPI pass-through coefficient; does not establish 20% unemployment"
        },
        {
          "id": "firooz_2024",
          "title": "Automation and the Rise of Superstar Firms",
          "date": "2024-10-18",
          "url": "https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/working-papers/2023/04/automation-and-the-rise-of-superstar-firms/",
          "review_scope": "official abstract and revision metadata",
          "design": "IV evidence on concentration plus calibrated heterogeneous-firm model",
          "finding": "Automation and concentration are linked; modeled productivity gains coexist with markup distortions",
          "limit": "Markup result is model-based; cannot insert as a measured global pass-through parameter"
        }
      ],
      "required_bridge": "Choose comparable automation/productivity and consumer-price measures, audit original tables/design, map sector exposure and markups into model price formula; no coefficient imported"
    },
    {
      "id": "profits_collectible_revenue",
      "parameters": [
        "profit_tax_rate",
        "capture_share"
      ],
      "status": "institutional_scenario_support_not_realized_cash_calibration",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "oecd_2024",
          "title": "Economic Impact Assessment of the Global Minimum Tax: Summary",
          "date": "2024-01",
          "url": "https://www.oecd.org/tax/beps/summary-economic-impact-assessment-global-minimum-tax-january-2024.pdf",
          "review_scope": "official four-page summary methodology and results",
          "design": "policy impact modeling using multinational data and implementation/behavioral assumptions",
          "finding": "Revenue consequences depend on top-up rules, profit shifting and implementation",
          "limit": "Projected incremental revenue is not realized cash receipts, statutory rate, accessible profit fraction or automation tax elasticity"
        },
        {
          "id": "imf_2023",
          "title": "International Corporate Tax Reform",
          "date": "2023-02",
          "url": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/pp/2023/english/ppea2023001.pdf",
          "review_scope": "official executive summary",
          "design": "IMF staff policy scenarios, not randomized reform outcomes",
          "finding": "Corporate tax reform is projected to raise revenues modestly with heterogeneous country effects and possible investment costs",
          "limit": "Different coverage and assumptions from OECD; do not pool projected gains or treat as current legal guidance"
        }
      ],
      "required_bridge": "Reconcile economic profits, taxable base and cash receipts by country/time; distinguish timing/loss relief/cross-border allocation and net fiscal offsets"
    },
    {
      "id": "transfers_consumption",
      "parameters": [
        "CONSUME_SHARE",
        "BUFFER_YEARS",
        "benefit funding rule"
      ],
      "status": "targeted_ui_spending_support_no_permanent_automation_or_liquidity_causal_approval",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "ganong_2024",
          "title": "Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data",
          "date": "2024-09",
          "doi": "10.1257/aer.20220973",
          "url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20220973",
          "review_scope": "published AER abstract and bibliographic metadata",
          "design": "administrative microdata study; full identification, estimates and replication not audited in this step",
          "finding": "Expanded US pandemic UI has large spending and small job-finding effects; high spending propensities persist in normally low-liquidity households even with higher liquidity",
          "limit": "Temporary US pandemic transfers; not lifetime automation income, pure liquidity causality or an estimate for the model's .90 consumption rule"
        }
      ],
      "required_bridge": "Inspect published full methods/tables/replication, extract estimand, units, horizon, coverage and uncertainty; separately test persistent transfers and cohort heterogeneity"
    }
  ],
  "excluded_or_uncompleted": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w26738",
      "reason": "direct open returned 403; search abstract not promoted to fully reviewed core source"
    }
  ],
  "model_gate": {
    "terminal_unemployment_20pct": "scenario input, not estimated",
    "pass_through": "unmapped",
    "capture_share": "unmapped",
    "CONSUME_SHARE": "behavioral assumption, not estimated MPC",
    "global_transportability": "not established",
    "causal_liquidity_protection": "not approved"
  },
  "next_priority": "Full-text methods and estimand extraction for the published transfer-spending paper before any numerical import; then direct productivity/consumer-price measurement bridge."
}