{
  "version": 62,
  "sources": [
    "data/processed/oecd_cit_panel_2000_2024_v53.csv",
    "data/processed/oecd_event_candidates_v61.csv"
  ],
  "events": 25,
  "increase_events": 5,
  "decrease_events": 20,
  "countries": 18,
  "window": 3,
  "baseline_event_time": -1,
  "units": "percentage points of GDP relative to year before tax-rate change",
  "summary_by_direction": {
    "all": [
      {
        "event_time": -3,
        "n_events": 25,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.014289119999999987,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.04190000000000005,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.4421310697927822
      },
      {
        "event_time": -2,
        "n_events": 25,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.022175559999999966,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.010923000000000016,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.29443764553793617
      },
      {
        "event_time": -1,
        "n_events": 25,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.0,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": 0.0,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.0
      },
      {
        "event_time": 0,
        "n_events": 25,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": -0.006169280000000086,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.0086529999999998,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.4059128296095439
      },
      {
        "event_time": 1,
        "n_events": 25,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": -0.021854280000000104,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.029039999999999955,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.5827508319774927
      },
      {
        "event_time": 2,
        "n_events": 25,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": -0.03877124000000004,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.1032700000000002,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.5703549599490128
      },
      {
        "event_time": 3,
        "n_events": 25,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.0035251199999999728,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.04345700000000008,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.6075085605606255
      }
    ],
    "increases": [
      {
        "event_time": -3,
        "n_events": 5,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": -0.08886720000000006,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.08336200000000016,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.28054348007964836
      },
      {
        "event_time": -2,
        "n_events": 5,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": -0.055810200000000074,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.13603500000000013,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.1674633724958984
      },
      {
        "event_time": -1,
        "n_events": 5,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.0,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": 0.0,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.0
      },
      {
        "event_time": 0,
        "n_events": 5,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.006027599999999955,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": 0.18036999999999992,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.6198188298896702
      },
      {
        "event_time": 1,
        "n_events": 5,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.0573453999999999,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": 0.337097,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.6662580830630125
      },
      {
        "event_time": 2,
        "n_events": 5,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": -0.17152220000000007,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.2564660000000001,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.47163747024457253
      },
      {
        "event_time": 3,
        "n_events": 5,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": -0.012723600000000035,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": 0.14421499999999998,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.6749565139420466
      }
    ],
    "decreases": [
      {
        "event_time": -3,
        "n_events": 20,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.040078199999999994,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.012441499999999994,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.47628999058187677
      },
      {
        "event_time": -2,
        "n_events": 20,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.04167199999999997,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": 0.0003615000000000146,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.31875230516070496
      },
      {
        "event_time": -1,
        "n_events": 20,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.0,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": 0.0,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.0
      },
      {
        "event_time": 0,
        "n_events": 20,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": -0.009218500000000096,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.017565500000000123,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.35664622777930854
      },
      {
        "event_time": 1,
        "n_events": 20,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": -0.0416542000000001,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.05391400000000013,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.5774518323910206
      },
      {
        "event_time": 2,
        "n_events": 20,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": -0.00558350000000003,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.07774300000000012,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.5985686658115517
      },
      {
        "event_time": 3,
        "n_events": 20,
        "mean_change_pp_gdp": 0.0075872999999999965,
        "median_change_pp_gdp": -0.060238000000000014,
        "std_change_pp_gdp": 0.608435626237277
      }
    ]
  },
  "descriptive_pre_event_means": {
    "all": {
      "-3": 0.014289119999999987,
      "-2": 0.022175559999999966
    },
    "increases": {
      "-3": -0.08886720000000006,
      "-2": -0.055810200000000074
    },
    "decreases": {
      "-3": 0.040078199999999994,
      "-2": 0.04167199999999997
    }
  },
  "event_rows_csv": "data/processed/oecd_event_profiles_v62.csv",
  "descriptive_sensitivity": {
    "increases": [
      {
        "event_time": -3,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": -0.1871735000000001,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.00548649999999995,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.1871735000000001,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.00548649999999995,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": -0.08886720000000006
      },
      {
        "event_time": -2,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": -0.1089027500000001,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": -0.01469050000000005,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.1089027500000001,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": -0.01469050000000005,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": -0.055810200000000074
      },
      {
        "event_time": -1,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": 0.0,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.0,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": 0.0,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.0,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": 0.0
      },
      {
        "event_time": 0,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": -0.12836275000000003,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.27311974999999994,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.12836275000000003,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.27311974999999994,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": 0.006027599999999955
      },
      {
        "event_time": 1,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": -0.08000600000000002,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.3298569999999999,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.08000600000000002,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.3298569999999999,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": 0.0573453999999999
      },
      {
        "event_time": 2,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": -0.30654725000000005,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": -0.025906000000000068,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.30654725000000005,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": -0.025906000000000096,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": -0.17152220000000007
      },
      {
        "event_time": 3,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": -0.2183535000000001,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.18607924999999997,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.2183535000000001,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.18607924999999997,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": -0.012723600000000035
      }
    ],
    "decreases": [
      {
        "event_time": -3,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": 0.004514315789473682,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.08819215789473685,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.029764722222222224,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.09108422222222222,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": 0.05976533333333332
      },
      {
        "event_time": -2,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": 0.008013789473684182,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.0718841578947368,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.01968472222222226,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.06906616666666664,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": 0.026208033333333294
      },
      {
        "event_time": -1,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": 0.0,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.0,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": 0.0,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.0,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": 0.0
      },
      {
        "event_time": 0,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": -0.04235236842105272,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.042169263157894626,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.04235236842105272,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.06029194444444433,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": 0.03714353333333322
      },
      {
        "event_time": 1,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": -0.0894035789473685,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.008770999999999897,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.0894035789473685,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.06136905555555545,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": 0.01864043333333322
      },
      {
        "event_time": 2,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": -0.07800615789473687,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.048010526315789434,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.07800615789473687,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.10148399999999996,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": 0.027750933333333287
      },
      {
        "event_time": 3,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_min": -0.06669547368421051,
        "leave_one_event_out_mean_max": 0.05936005263157894,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_min": -0.06669547368421053,
        "leave_one_country_out_mean_max": 0.11017666666666663,
        "equal_country_weight_mean": 0.05480953333333332
      }
    ]
  },
  "sensitivity_note": "Leave-one-out ranges are sensitivity diagnostics, not confidence intervals.",
  "warnings": [
    "Uncontrolled descriptive event profiles; no counterfactual or causal identification.",
    "Event windows from the same country may overlap; events are not necessarily independent.",
    "Pre-event profiles are not a parallel-trends test without a comparison group.",
    "Only five isolated rate increases; estimates for increases are highly fragile.",
    "Revenue/GDP may move with the denominator, business cycle, and concurrent reforms.",
    "Selection on isolated changes of >=1 pp may bias the event sample.",
    "Do not use these profiles for fiscal calibration."
  ],
  "calibration_allowed": false
}