{
  "version": 59,
  "sources": [
    "data/processed/oecd_cit_panel_2000_2024_v53.csv",
    "data/processed/oecd_macro_controls_v57.csv"
  ],
  "method": "Country/year FE; country-clustered SE; one-year consecutive rate lag",
  "models": [
    {
      "model": "current_rate_common_sample",
      "observations": 905,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 24,
      "r_squared": 0.8039122319336135,
      "coefficients": {
        "statutory_cit_pct": {
          "beta": 0.04210184204459843,
          "cluster_se": 0.013034089557434687,
          "p_value": 0.001237326697622145,
          "ci95": [
            0.01655549594075683,
            0.06764818814844004
          ]
        },
        "real_gdp_growth_pct": {
          "beta": 0.010508154805462981,
          "cluster_se": 0.007796466557454963,
          "p_value": 0.17771953315598454,
          "ci95": [
            -0.004772638853819728,
            0.025788948464745692
          ]
        },
        "cpi_inflation_pct": {
          "beta": -0.0003839626018004651,
          "cluster_se": 0.010743109474858556,
          "p_value": 0.9714893883476851,
          "ci95": [
            -0.021440070254494247,
            0.020672145050893317
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "model": "lagged_rate_only",
      "observations": 905,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 24,
      "r_squared": 0.8017449842498428,
      "coefficients": {
        "rate_lag1": {
          "beta": 0.03136607473295602,
          "cluster_se": 0.012424688450896886,
          "p_value": 0.011586436496071408,
          "ci95": [
            0.00701413285006737,
            0.055718016615844676
          ]
        },
        "real_gdp_growth_pct": {
          "beta": 0.008751820984708543,
          "cluster_se": 0.007999114857855528,
          "p_value": 0.27391170254305397,
          "ci95": [
            -0.006926156044887525,
            0.02442979801430461
          ]
        },
        "cpi_inflation_pct": {
          "beta": 0.00034197283152653416,
          "cluster_se": 0.010690932224841842,
          "p_value": 0.9744822702123377,
          "ci95": [
            -0.020611869290322146,
            0.021295814953375215
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "model": "current_and_lagged",
      "observations": 905,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 24,
      "r_squared": 0.8040006601687614,
      "coefficients": {
        "statutory_cit_pct": {
          "beta": 0.050420574210410136,
          "cluster_se": 0.019373111508706714,
          "p_value": 0.009251823830544282,
          "ci95": [
            0.012449973384866544,
            0.08839117503595373
          ]
        },
        "rate_lag1": {
          "beta": -0.009775701666506811,
          "cluster_se": 0.01706937483091314,
          "p_value": 0.566845032512486,
          "ci95": [
            -0.04323106157371104,
            0.023679658240697413
          ]
        },
        "real_gdp_growth_pct": {
          "beta": 0.01058782313022782,
          "cluster_se": 0.0077596588191757585,
          "p_value": 0.17241963063308496,
          "ci95": [
            -0.004620828687675271,
            0.02579647494813091
          ]
        },
        "cpi_inflation_pct": {
          "beta": -0.0003339724148283398,
          "cluster_se": 0.010686035424814298,
          "p_value": 0.975067642066936,
          "ci95": [
            -0.021278216984983542,
            0.02061027215532686
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "model": "current_lagged_country_trends",
      "observations": 905,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 24,
      "r_squared": 0.8341643104574293,
      "coefficients": {
        "statutory_cit_pct": {
          "beta": 0.03842649927770026,
          "cluster_se": 0.010472592775916011,
          "p_value": 0.00024326871118517264,
          "ci95": [
            0.01790059461215053,
            0.05895240394324999
          ]
        },
        "rate_lag1": {
          "beta": -0.004930747943127912,
          "cluster_se": 0.020916125876087613,
          "p_value": 0.8136351550885622,
          "ci95": [
            -0.04592560135636592,
            0.03606410547011009
          ]
        },
        "real_gdp_growth_pct": {
          "beta": 0.001821309259874757,
          "cluster_se": 0.0115333870096641,
          "p_value": 0.8745227907958351,
          "ci95": [
            -0.020783713898828993,
            0.024426332418578507
          ]
        },
        "cpi_inflation_pct": {
          "beta": -0.004523264919873947,
          "cluster_se": 0.023428777035928734,
          "p_value": 0.8469084612868305,
          "ci95": [
            -0.050442824112113344,
            0.04139629427236545
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "warnings": [
    "Lags do not establish causal identification or solve policy endogeneity.",
    "Contemporaneous growth/inflation may be jointly determined with revenue.",
    "Country trend specification may have redundant columns; assess rank separately.",
    "No event-study parallel-trend or policy timing validation.",
    "Do not use these coefficients for fiscal scenario calibration."
  ],
  "calibration_allowed": false
}