{
  "version": 58,
  "sources": [
    "data/processed/oecd_cit_panel_2000_2024_v53.csv",
    "data/processed/oecd_macro_controls_v57.csv"
  ],
  "method": "Country/year fixed effects, OLS, country-clustered SE",
  "sample": {
    "observations": 943,
    "countries": 38,
    "years": 25
  },
  "models": [
    {
      "specification": "baseline_same_sample",
      "formula": "corporate_tax_pct_gdp_oecd ~ statutory_cit_pct + C(country) + C(year)",
      "observations": 943,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 25,
      "r_squared": 0.8004892803466211,
      "coefficients": {
        "statutory_cit_pct": {
          "estimate": 0.044727215327774725,
          "cluster_se": 0.013225470659471088,
          "p_value": 0.0007198642171609823,
          "ci95": [
            0.018805769156620192,
            0.07064866149892926
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "specification": "with_macro_controls",
      "formula": "corporate_tax_pct_gdp_oecd ~ statutory_cit_pct + real_gdp_growth_pct + cpi_inflation_pct + C(country) + C(year)",
      "observations": 943,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 25,
      "r_squared": 0.8009882307116418,
      "coefficients": {
        "statutory_cit_pct": {
          "estimate": 0.04582772771667616,
          "cluster_se": 0.013336986881304467,
          "p_value": 0.0005900702795982807,
          "ci95": [
            0.01968771376703623,
            0.07196774166631609
          ]
        },
        "real_gdp_growth_pct": {
          "estimate": 0.015788701317532374,
          "cluster_se": 0.00891178572551763,
          "p_value": 0.07645013699762492,
          "ci95": [
            -0.001678077742420337,
            0.03325548037748509
          ]
        },
        "cpi_inflation_pct": {
          "estimate": -0.0013907040243599528,
          "cluster_se": 0.009654741005209563,
          "p_value": 0.8854660102947378,
          "ci95": [
            -0.020313648674632735,
            0.017532240625912833
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "specification": "with_macro_excluding_2020_2022",
      "formula": "corporate_tax_pct_gdp_oecd ~ statutory_cit_pct + real_gdp_growth_pct + cpi_inflation_pct + C(country) + C(year)",
      "observations": 829,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 22,
      "r_squared": 0.8298070101972086,
      "coefficients": {
        "statutory_cit_pct": {
          "estimate": 0.048467482385218336,
          "cluster_se": 0.014004200026646856,
          "p_value": 0.0005383232779215355,
          "ci95": [
            0.02101975470069563,
            0.07591521006974104
          ]
        },
        "real_gdp_growth_pct": {
          "estimate": 0.02184971012991049,
          "cluster_se": 0.011224951355896271,
          "p_value": 0.0515910483856327,
          "ci95": [
            -0.00015079025586024752,
            0.04385021051568123
          ]
        },
        "cpi_inflation_pct": {
          "estimate": -0.0002335115107889169,
          "cluster_se": 0.008143175681802001,
          "p_value": 0.9771232127081915,
          "ci95": [
            -0.01619384256690324,
            0.015726819545325406
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "specification": "with_macro_and_country_trends",
      "formula": "corporate_tax_pct_gdp_oecd ~ statutory_cit_pct + real_gdp_growth_pct + cpi_inflation_pct + C(country) + C(year) + C(country):trend",
      "observations": 943,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 25,
      "r_squared": 0.8339325430032725,
      "coefficients": {
        "statutory_cit_pct": {
          "estimate": 0.034526783092350875,
          "cluster_se": 0.011539803372087275,
          "p_value": 0.0027718054231457624,
          "ci95": [
            0.011909184094385947,
            0.057144382090315804
          ]
        },
        "real_gdp_growth_pct": {
          "estimate": 0.007239196494445252,
          "cluster_se": 0.007332378249506402,
          "p_value": 0.3234996378627458,
          "ci95": [
            -0.007132000795612143,
            0.02161039378450265
          ]
        },
        "cpi_inflation_pct": {
          "estimate": -0.00375553147111891,
          "cluster_se": 0.010771467307466032,
          "p_value": 0.7273479455383294,
          "ci95": [
            -0.024867219454402963,
            0.01735615651216514
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "notes": [
    "Dependent variable is OECD corporate-tax revenue as percent of GDP.",
    "All regressors in percentage points, except FE and trend.",
    "Macroeconomic controls are contemporaneous and may be endogenous.",
    "A country-trends specification may exhibit rank deficiency; treat nonfinite SE as invalid.",
    "No causal identification or forecasting validation; calibration prohibited."
  ],
  "calibration_allowed": false
}