{
  "version": 54,
  "source": "data/processed/oecd_cit_panel_2000_2024_v53.csv",
  "method": "OLS with country and year fixed effects; standard errors clustered by country",
  "countries_total": 38,
  "country_year_rows": 943,
  "within_country_rate_changes": 284,
  "models": [
    {
      "specification": "all_years_2000_2024",
      "observations": 943,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 25,
      "rate_coefficient": 0.044727215327774725,
      "cluster_robust_se": 0.013225470659471088,
      "p_value": 0.0007198642171609823,
      "confidence_interval_95": [
        0.018805769156620192,
        0.07064866149892926
      ],
      "r_squared": 0.8004892803466211,
      "interpretation": "Percentage-point change in tax revenue/GDP associated with one percentage-point change in statutory CIT rate, conditional on country and year FE. Not causal."
    },
    {
      "specification": "exclude_2020_2022",
      "observations": 829,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 22,
      "rate_coefficient": 0.047132136469567314,
      "cluster_robust_se": 0.013802855824473102,
      "p_value": 0.0006386036912880838,
      "confidence_interval_95": [
        0.02007903616980112,
        0.0741852367693335
      ],
      "r_squared": 0.8288860665366932,
      "interpretation": "Percentage-point change in tax revenue/GDP associated with one percentage-point change in statutory CIT rate, conditional on country and year FE. Not causal."
    },
    {
      "specification": "pre_covid_2005_2019",
      "observations": 570,
      "countries": 38,
      "years": 15,
      "rate_coefficient": 0.042095013873350094,
      "cluster_robust_se": 0.020145754073378264,
      "p_value": 0.036660681433452615,
      "confidence_interval_95": [
        0.0026100614481276083,
        0.08157996629857259
      ],
      "r_squared": 0.8389957432269713,
      "interpretation": "Percentage-point change in tax revenue/GDP associated with one percentage-point change in statutory CIT rate, conditional on country and year FE. Not causal."
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Associations only: policy endogeneity, omitted time-varying factors, and tax-base dynamics remain.",
    "38 country clusters; small-cluster and serial-correlation concerns remain.",
    "No GDP, inflation, sectoral profitability, or other time-varying macro controls.",
    "Revenue ratio uses OECD GDP denominator; monetary revenue in local currencies is not pooled.",
    "Country-specific trends, lag structures and identification diagnostics not yet estimated."
  ],
  "calibration_allowed": false
}