מסמך טכני מיומן המחקר · באנגלית, כפי שנכתב בשלב העבודה
Step 298: consumption, debt and benefit adequacy
The stricter screen adds a third condition to the v297 joint consumption and debt screen. A policy passes if it meets the original two thresholds and has no more years of partial benefit payment than the matched no-support case at the same levy ceiling. This measures the frequency of rationing. A case can pass with existing partial payments or a change in their severity. The test does not require full benefits in every year.
Each cell is a count out of 432 in the order no support / 50% gap support / 75% gap support.
| Investment decay | Rate sensitivity | Shared ceiling 10% | Shared ceiling 15% | Shared ceiling 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6 | 259 / 259 / 259 | 297 / 288 / 287 | 297 / 288 / 287 |
| 0 | 0.15 | 255 / 258 / 258 | 265 / 268 / 267 | 265 / 268 / 267 |
| 0.518 | 0.6 | 242 / 253 / 253 | 269 / 279 / 284 | 269 / 279 / 284 |
| 0.518 | 0.15 | 223 / 243 / 249 | 261 / 281 / 286 | 261 / 281 / 286 |
| 1.27 | 0.6 | 60 / 121 / 124 | 60 / 143 / 144 | 60 / 176 / 175 |
| 1.27 | 0.15 | 27 / 81 / 82 | 27 / 88 / 90 | 27 / 109 / 115 |
| 1.5 | 0.6 | 22 / 59 / 59 | 22 / 66 / 64 | 22 / 81 / 82 |
| 1.5 | 0.15 | 8 / 37 / 38 | 8 / 38 / 38 | 8 / 46 / 45 |
At 50%, the stricter count rises in 21 of 24 settings, is unchanged in one and falls in two. Six settings have at least one loss among the baseline passes. At 75%, the same aggregate up/tie/down distribution applies, with losses among baseline passes in nine settings.
At the post-2012 anchor and central interest sensitivity with a 15% ceiling, 50% support adds 11 strict passes and loses one baseline pass due to added rationing, for a net increase of 10. At zero decay and central sensitivity, 50% support loses nine strict passes at each of the 15% and 20% ceilings. At the full-history stress anchor and central sensitivity, 50% support retains the original joint count at all three ceilings (59, 66 and 81), even though v297 found additional rationing years among some cases that already failed the original joint screen.
For the thesis, report the two screens separately. Partial demand support improves the joint count across the tested investment-stress settings even with the frequency-of-rationing constraint. Its preservation of all baseline passes applies to the original two-criterion screen. The historical investment slopes are descriptive sensitivity anchors. The grid uses fixed levy behavior and the counts are model outcomes for the selected cases.
Run python scripts/israel_investment_financing_v297.py. All v297 fields reproduce exactly. The added fields report strict passes, matched strict gains and losses, and ordinary joint passes removed by the added constraint.