Step 295: consumption and debt behind policy gains and losses

This analysis reuses the v294 scenarios and policy settings at the four v293 anchors. For each matched case that changes joint pass status, classify the failing side of the comparison by the criterion it failed. The joint screen requires both displaced groups to maintain at least 90% of initial real nonhousing consumption in every year and peak net public debt at or below 90% of output. The simulation checks the same 432 cases per row. No incomplete run appears among the transitions.

The table compares support at any demand gap with no support. Gained cases are grouped by their failure without support. Lost cases are grouped by their failure with support.

All losses against no support occur at the lowest productivity gain setting (0.25). At the full-history stress anchor (1.5), all gains occur at the two higher productivity settings. At sensitivity 0.60, 29 of the 38 gains are at productivity gain 1.0. At sensitivity 0.15, 24 of the 33 gains are at that setting.

Against support only at a zero policy rate, the full-history stress anchor at rate sensitivity 0.60 gains three cases previously failing only consumption and loses one to the debt criterion. At 0.15, it gains three previously failing only debt and one previously failing only consumption, with no loss. These categories describe which screen switched status in matched model cases. They do not isolate a causal mechanism within the simulation or establish an empirical effect.

Run python scripts/israel_investment_transitions_v295.py to reproduce both comparisons and the productivity breakdown. Totals reconcile with the paired gains and losses from v294.