How exposed is your occupation to AI?
40 occupational groups by the ILO 2025 index, with a result you can share. Exposure, not a layoff forecast.
Check exposure ←MacroVision · Independent open research
What will happen to the economy when machines work in our place?
What happens to work, prices and purchasing power as automation spreads? The research builds a model of a whole economy, calibrates it to Israeli data and shows what we still do not know.
Three key findings42/42Displaced workers fell behindIn every matched comparison, even when the benefit kept their consumption up, they ended below the path without automation.27%of Israel’s unemployed in 2024 were professionalsup from 16% in 2017 (Labour Force Survey). Among clerical workers, the most exposed group, there is no rise.3.9%of output: Israel’s corporate tax takeBelow the model’s lowest scenario. Only doubled productivity lets the benefit be financed.Model findings are 20-year scenarios, not a forecast.
What’s new in the research · November 2026
Full research log →- TaxesCorporate tax at Israeli valuesIsrael’s revenue (about 3.9% of output) is below the model’s lowest scenario, and only doubled productivity lets the benefit be financed.
- HousingPartial housing calibration for IsraelIn the bottom decile, where most households rent, displaced workers are hit harder than on average. Indexing the benefit to housing costs narrows the gap.
- Labour marketThe unemployed by occupation, 2023–2024No rise in clerical over-representation; professionals’ share of the unemployed rose to 27%.
Three tools from the research
Check for yourself: data, scenarios from the model, and what happens to a benefit when prices change.
What happens to employment, prices and output?
Compare paths from the research simulation and set the assumptions yourself.
Open the scenario lab →How much can a benefit buy when prices fall?
Compare three price scenarios and consumption basket coverage.
To the purchasing power calculator ←More illustrative tools
- Economic future calculator · household budget in three scenarios
- Occupations in the AI era · examples of tasks and skills
- Occupation comparison · a qualitative illustration, not layoff forecasts
- Macro scenario comparison · income, prices and benefits
Main story · Research scenario · 4-minute read
If AI replaces jobs, what will we live on?
A world with less work could produce more. Who can buy the output, and how will automation gains be distributed?
Read accessible research ←EmploymentWages and employment
AutomationCosts and prices
Income distributionCapital, taxes and benefits
New: an interactive chart comparing automation scenarios ← · Normalized simulation, not a forecast.
Knowledge library and sources — external studies and reports with Hebrew summaries ←
Choose how to start
Three paths to understanding the economics of automation
You can start with the big question, dig into the methodology or test scenarios yourself.
Understand the big picture
What does a scenario of 20% unemployment mean, and what might happen to prices and consumption?
Start with the main article ←Get to know the research
Assumptions, mechanisms, sources and limitations of the macroeconomic model.
Read about the methodology ←Explore the data
Compare employment, price and output scenarios from the research simulation.
Open the scenario lab ←Publications: AI, work and the automation economy
Accessible explainers based on the research, with sources, assumptions and limitations. A scenario is not a forecast, and a statistical association is not proof of causation.
Empirical finding · AI and work
Is AI already eliminating jobs?
13 European countries: still no significant relationship between AI adoption and employment in exposed occupations.
Data guide · AI and workWhich occupations are most exposed to AI?
The full ranking of 40 occupational groups according to the ILO, and what it does not say about layoffs.
New article · Research and scenarios20% global unemployment: an inevitable crisis?
A scenario of widespread unemployment and its effect on the distribution of income and consumption.
New article · Research and scenariosCould a basic benefit preserve living standards?
Purchasing power, public financing and household debt.
Descriptive findings · 4-minute readCan corporate tax fund a world with less work?
The available data help frame the question, but do not yet provide a causal answer or guarantee tax revenue.
New article · Research and scenariosCheaper machines, cheaper products?
How productivity, competition and capital costs affect consumer prices.
5 more publications
New finding · Simulation
Even when benefits protect them, those who lost their jobs fall behind
In all 42 matched comparisons, displaced workers ended below the path without automation.
New article · Research and scenariosAsset ownership versus debt
Who is more exposed to changes in employment, profits and asset prices?
New article · Research and scenariosHow do you build a model for the age of automation?
Assumptions, accounting, sensitivity tests and the limitations of the research.
Accounting illustration · 3-minute readPrices have fallen. Will the benefit buy more?
Purchasing power also depends on wages, taxes and debt. A simple example shows why lower prices are not the whole story.
Descriptive case study · 4-minute readTax expense and cash tax — why do the numbers differ?
Nine observations across three companies illustrate tax expense versus cash payments and the effects of weighting choices.
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